Is Fibre Broadband Destined to Rule the Netherlands Alone?
Picture this: In a country where lightning-fast internet could redefine daily life, fibre technology has just claimed the top spot in Dutch households – but is it truly the unrivaled champion of broadband? Dive into the evolving world of Dutch connectivity, where fibre's rise sparks debates about competition, innovation, and what lies ahead for everyday users. If you've ever wondered why your internet speeds matter more than ever, this exploration will keep you hooked.
Fibre Takes the Lead in Dutch Homes
Let's break it down simply for beginners: Broadband internet connects your devices to the web, and in the Netherlands, fibre-optic cables – which transmit data via light through thin glass threads – have surpassed cable (like HFC, or Hybrid Fibre-Coaxial, using a mix of fibre and traditional coax cables) as the most popular choice. In the first quarter of 2025, fibre became the dominant broadband tech in Dutch households for the very first time. Most of this growth happened by stealing users from older copper-based xDSL networks (think ADSL or VDSL, which rely on phone lines and are slower for high-demand tasks like streaming 4K videos or gaming). Cable broadband did see a slight drop in subscribers, but it's far from disappearing – in fact, it's poised to remain a crucial player in the Netherlands' internet ecosystem.
To put it in perspective, fibre offers blazing speeds that can handle multiple devices streaming simultaneously without a glitch, while cable has historically been reliable for many. But here's where it gets controversial: As fibre expands, is cable being unfairly pushed aside, or is this just the natural evolution of better technology? We'll explore that tension as we go.
Key Market Insights: Fibre Adoption on the Rise
The Netherlands is outpacing its neighbor Belgium, where fibre adoption lags behind (check out this ING article for more: https://think.ing.com/articles/why-only-11-percent-belgians-use-fibre-technology/). The chart below shows how fibre coverage has been climbing steadily nationwide, thanks to massive investments in infrastructure. This means more homes now have access to high-speed internet, making it easier for families to work from home, students to attend online classes, or gamers to compete in global tournaments without lag.
Dutch fibre customers are surpassing cable customers (m)
Source: ACM, ING
With fibre gaining momentum, xDSL platforms are facing the steepest user losses. The Dutch market looks set to stay fiercely competitive as more fibre networks roll out. For example, major player KPN now reaches 5.51 million homes with its fibre infrastructure, including 695,000 connected via Glaspoort, a joint venture with APG. Out of those, KPN reports about 4.3 million homes are hooked up (Glaspoort included), with 1.9 million of those being consumer fibre customers.
Meanwhile, Open Dutch Fiber (ODF) covers more than 1 million homes – projected to hit that mark by year-end 2023 and nearly 1.5 million by year-end 2025. Delta Fiber reaches 1.7 million homes, with 1.1 million already connected and 594,000 active clients. These figures highlight how smaller providers are carving out niches, but the landscape isn't without challenges.
In the Netherlands, xDSL is suffering most from the fibre uptake (m)
Source: ACM, ING
Cable Holds Strong Amid the Shift
Even with fibre's dominance, cable broadband hasn't crumbled – its market share has dipped slightly but remains solid at 38% (down from 41% in the fourth quarter of 2022). And this is the part most people miss: Cable no longer has a clear speed advantage over old-school copper, now that fibre delivers the quickest broadband, especially for uploads (imagine sending large files to the cloud in seconds). Yet, cable's resilience shows the value of choice in a diverse market.
By 2028, KPN plans to cover around 80% of Dutch homes – that's about 6.7 million. On the flip side, Delta Fiber has dialed back its goals from passing 2 million homes, opting instead to focus on its current reach and even selling off a network covering 200,000 homes to KPN (awaiting regulatory green light). They cite network overbuild – where multiple providers build infrastructure in the same areas, leading to inefficiencies – as the reason. Around mid-2024, there were 100,000 homes with duplicate networks. Similarly, ODF has adjusted its ambitions, now targeting 1.5 million homes by 2026, though much of that will be met by year-end 2025.
But here's where it gets interesting: Is this overbuild a wasteful competition, or a necessary driver for better prices and services? Fibre's rise underscores a tech shift, but cable's staying power raises questions about whether monopolies might form if smaller players struggle. What do you think – should regulators enforce more sharing to prevent redundancy?
VodafoneZiggo: Innovating to Stay Relevant
As VodafoneZiggo faces pressure to adapt, pricing strategies and fresh product ideas are essential. They've aligned prices with KPN since they can't justify premiums without a speed edge anymore. Still, we believe VodafoneZiggo can hold onto a strong position because competition isn't just about tech – it's also about brand loyalty, clever marketing, and extras like bundled TV or mobile plans. Historically, KPN has matched VodafoneZiggo's prices even when its xDSL was slower than cable options.
Adding fuel to the debate, Dutch media outlet Het Financieele Dagblad notes that ODF and Delta Fiber are heavily indebted, which could worsen if interest rates climb. They've struggled to snatch market share from giants like KPN and VodafoneZiggo, so partnering could help – for instance, if KPN or VodafoneZiggo leased their networks. VodafoneZiggo is already set to use Delta Fiber for 200,000 homes lacking its own coverage. But with VodafoneZiggo upgrading to Docsis 4.0 (a cable tech boost for faster speeds), a short-term wholesale deal seems unlikely. We'd expect VodafoneZiggo to demand significant ownership stakes or customer migration benefits in any deal.
This financial strain and partnership push introduces a controversial angle: Are smaller fibre providers doomed without big players' support, or does their debt reflect overambitious expansion? Could this lead to less innovation if they merge or sell out? It's a hot topic – share your views below!
Wrapping Up: The Future of Dutch Broadband
The Netherlands' broadband scene is buzzing with fibre's ascent, but cable and other options aren't fading quietly. As infrastructure expands, users gain more choices, yet challenges like debt and overbuild threaten the balance. Is fibre the ultimate winner, or will hybrid models prevail? What role should government play in fostering fair competition?
We'd love to hear from you: Do you agree that fibre is king, or is cable still a viable alternative in your experience? Does the debt load on smaller providers worry you, or do you see it as a natural part of growth? Comment below and join the conversation – your insights could shape how we view this tech revolution!
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This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more (https://think.ing.com/about/content-disclaimer/)
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